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Weekly Market Commentary – Midyear Outlook 2017: Business Fundamentals Back At The Controls

Weekly Market Commentary – Midyear Outlook 2017: Business Fundamentals Back At The Controls

  We forecast 6–9% returns for the S&P 500 in 2017, commensurate with expected earnings gains. As investors increasingly trust that the economy can stand on its own without the need of monetary policy support, business fundamentals should take over as the primary market engine. The economic expansion is poised to continue, and powered by […]

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Weekly Market Commentary – Hurdling Overseas Earnings: What Do The Forecasts Tell Us?

Weekly Market Commentary – Hurdling Overseas Earnings: What Do The Forecasts Tell Us?

  Global equity markets were buoyed by earnings outpacing already strong expectations in the first quarter of 2017. Expectations generally remain optimistic for the rest of the year, with earnings forecasts either increasing or only modestly decreasing recently. Based on changes to earnings forecasts, analysts seem confident in the global economy and see potential strength […]

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Weekly Market Commentary – Master Limited Partnership: More Going On Than Oil Price

Weekly Market Commentary – Master Limited Partnership: More Going On Than Oil Price

MLPs can provide investors with exposure to a niche, yet vital, aspect of the energy production chain. MLPs are sensitive to a number of factors, including the prices of oil and natural gas, interest rates, and the overall performance of the stock market. Yet at times, the performance of MLPs does not seem very connected […]

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Weekly Market Commentary – Corporate Beige Book: It Keeps Getting Bigger

Weekly Market Commentary – Corporate Beige Book: It Keeps Getting Bigger

Much like first quarter earnings results and management guidance, our measure of corporate sentiment based on earnings conference call transcripts was better than we expected. We saw a sharp increase in strong and positive words over the prior quarter, with no change in weak and negative words. There was virtually no talk of recession, and […]

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Weekly Market Commentary – Focus on Fundamentals

Weekly Market Commentary – Focus on Fundamentals

At times of uncertainty we suggest investors focus on the fundamentals of the economy and corporate profits. Like everyone else, we don’t know what will happen with the Russia investigation, although we have made some observations about what the latest news could mean for fiscal policy. We have a better handle on the basic fundamentals, […]

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Weekly Market Commentary – Earnings Update: Raising the Bar

Weekly Market Commentary – Earnings Update:  Raising the Bar

First quarter earnings season has been excellent by almost any measure. The comparison to depressed first quarter 2016 earnings was very easy, so the bar will be raised over the next several quarters. Market participants generally expect fiscal policy to begin to provide an earnings boost around New Year’s, an expectation that has become increasingly […]

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Weekly Market Commentary – Five Reasons Not To Sell In May

Weekly Market Commentary – Five Reasons Not To Sell In May

“Sell in May and go away” has become cliché, but the data are tough to ignore. Market strength heading into this seasonally weak period and broad participation in the global bull market help reduce the chances of a major sell-off. Additionally, low odds of a recession, improving earnings, and historically strong gains after new highs […]

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Weekly Market Commentary – Reflecting on NASDAQ 6,000

Weekly Market Commentary – Reflecting on NASDAQ 6,000

The Nasdaq Composite hit 6,000 last week, more than 17 years after first reaching 5,000 back in March 2000. Although this milestone has sparked more bubble discussions in the media, we believe stocks are far from bubble territory. A comparison of the Nasdaq today versus March 2000 reveals much lower valuations and far less euphoric […]

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Weekly Market Commentary – Europe Enters The Tour De France

By on 04/25/2017 in Uncategorized with 0 Comments
Weekly Market Commentary – Europe Enters The Tour De France

Though political considerations have dominated the conversation around European investing (for good reason), fundamentals are the main driver. Europe has emerged from its earnings recession, and expectations for 2017 appear optimistic given the economic fundamentals. European election results that do not roil markets and decent earnings expansion in the first quarter will be key for […]

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Weekly Market Commentary – Which Breaks First, Stock Prices or Uncertainty?

Weekly Market Commentary – Which Breaks First, Stock Prices or Uncertainty?

  Longer-term technical indicators on equities continue to look strong. Sentiment is mixed, but with uncertainty high, the potential for increased market volatility is on the rise. WHICH BREAKS FIRST, STOCK PRICES OR UNCERTAINTY? Some significant technical trend lines are in play, so we take a closer look at market technicals and sentiment this week. […]

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