A Fall and Winter Preview

Now that Labor Day has passed, the kids are back in school, and we are settling back into our fall routine, it is time to review the question “Did the summer show us anything about how the fall and winter investment season will go?” Well for starters, we did not see, as we did last year, a late May/June market selloff. That was good and has provided for a relatively smooth summer allowing us all to have a much needed vacation from the market volatility that is part of our investment world. Some mixed data came in over the summer giving some lift to the market, but never enough to remove the ultimate concerns that we all know still exists.

Since the sell-off did not happen, experts are now saying that September could be the month that such a correction may occur. The odds makers are not lining up quite yet, but from a historical perspective September has been and usually does provide some red arrow days.

It would not surprise me if we see a sell-off in the equities markets at some level that tests the market range that we have found ourselves in these last several months. But, I believe this will be more of an opportunity for buying that a time to run to the hills.

So, as we go into this fall and winter, what will be the biggest influences in the market? Without a doubt, the answer is includes the political election. The sheer noise and lack of progress that is coming out of the political campaigning and Washington, D.C. is enough to create uncertainty for the market. With uncertainty comes concern, with concern comes volatility, and we all might as well get used to that until November 6th.

Next is the fact that Europe needs a solution for their BIG problems. It appears that parties and countries are trying to work their way through this mess. But, until the market sees a specific plan or action spelled out, Europe will be a potential factor of concern for the market this fall.

Finally, the basic fundamentals in this country need to be fixed in order for the market to make a considerable move up. Unemployment needs to come down, corporate profits need to increase, gas prices need to go down, and this country’s government spending must be gotten under control.

I believe that this market will continue to move up and end higher by the end of this year. However, these factors I mentioned have the power to derail this slow moving train. I do believe we will see a market slow down, but not a stall of the economy this Fall. It is my hope that come October and November, enough improvements and changes will occur to create a possible "Santa Claus Rally" this December.

 

 

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance reference is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

Stock investing may involve risk including loss of principal.