Is It A Trick or Treat?
With this year of turmoil and tumult, we have had our fair share of emotional schizophrenia. We have all had many false hopes only dashed into the realities of weak global leadership leading to many economic and political uncertainties. Since today is Halloween, I thought I’d take a look and see if there are any treats like full sized Milky Way’s awaiting our bags or will the future be that house that gives out the dental floss or candy corn. Trick or Treat #1 - Will we have economic growth in 2012? Answer = Trick
Until the elections, we will continue to see weak growth as corporations hoard cash and individuals are mired with a lack of confidence. Growth will be similar to what we are seeing this year….slow to no.
Trick or Treat #2 - Will there be Congressional bi-partnership to make substantive progress in deficit reduction? Answer = Trick
They will do just enough to keep money flowing so there is no governmental shutdown. The shock of S&P’s downgrading of our treasury bonds has passed and both sides of the aisle will dig in their heels until after the elections. Until Congress and whomever is elected President are brave enough to tackle the entitlement programs of Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, our budget woes will never be fully addressed.
Trick or Treat #3 - Will Europe finally cement a plan to handle their financial crisis? Answer = Treat
At some point in the coming weeks, look for something positive that all parties in the Eurozone can live with. However, it won’t come without more pain and uncertainty.
Trick or Treat #4 - With the current crop of Republican candidates, do you think their will be one who emerges who can defeat President Obama? Answer = Treat
Unless something unforeseen occurs, Mitt Romney seems to be the most viable Republican candidate. Since most of corporate America and most moderate to conservative citizens believe a change is needed, we hope that we get this treat in November, 2012.
Trick or Treat #5 - How will the market finish for year’s end? Answer = Treat
The double dip for now seems to have been overblown and Europe seems to be on their way to a plan. Let’s see how the earnings season continues to play out and if current trends continue, we should see a strong finish in 2011.
I think when we get home and empty our bags out on the kitchen table, we will see more Hershey bars, Mounds, Snickers, and Butterfingers than candy corn, Dum Dum’s and those horrible little wax bottles filled with foul tasting liquid. 2012 will not be without more challenges that slow to no growth brings, however we should see some positive signs before we start buying the candy for next year’s Halloween.