Boy are we all glad that the third quarter is over! The third quarter will go down as the worst third quarter in the last four years! Now we look toward to the last quarter of this year and all hope for a Santa rally, economic Christmas present, a surprise or the expected push that many of us are waiting for. Whatever we want to call it or however we frame it, we still believe that the market has the ability and means to end positive for the year.
We are beginning to hear concerns from many of you and see the reasons for your anxiety.
Let me reassure you we are actively monitoring our resources the most current economic data and speaking with our trusted advisors on their recommendations for asset classes to be in and also to avoid. We are reviewing weekly their prognosis and are getting a feeling for the fourth quarter. We are asking tough questions and running different scenarios for the models we work within.
Let me reassure you that if we feel changes are needed, we will make those recommendations and act where appropriate.
Our focus for the last quarter this year will be on the following economic data points:
1. We would like to see clarity coming out of China on their glide path. A soft landing with a reasonable Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would be reassuring.
2. We would like to see an earning season showing earnings meeting expectations.
3. We would like to see clarity on the Federal Reserve’s lift off on interest rates for December.
4. We would like to see Congress passing their budget in December with no shut down distractions.
5. We would like to see that Russia and the Middle East do not boil up and over.
If these events can happen and #5 does not then we, like others, believe the market can close up and go into January with a strong single digit to low double digit showing.
So say good bye to last quarter, tighten down your belt, and let’s go forward towards better days.